Tua Tagovailoa’s Injury Saga Continues: What His Latest Concussion Means for the Dolphins’ Super Bowl Dreams and the Future of Their Star Quarterback.

by Ed Solano

After Miami Dolphins star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was diagnosed with the third concussion of his NFL career, ESPN reported on Tuesday, Sept 17 that he will be placed on injured reserve and miss at least four games.

Tagovailoa is not guaranteed to return when the Dolphins host the Cardinals in Week 8 on October 27. Miami does not want to rush the return of their recently crowned franchise quarterback from yet another traumatic head injury. He will seek opinions from multiple independent neurologists before attempting to return.

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said it was up to Tagovailoa to decide his future in football.

“As far as Tua’s career is concerned, I think it’s of utmost priority of mind for Tua to speak on Tua’s career,” McDaniel said. “So I think reports are reports. As far as I’m concerned, I’m just worried about the human being and where that’s at day to day, and I think I’ll let Tua be the champion of his own career and speak on that.”

Tua’s Injury History in the NFL

November 25, 2020 – Hand Thumb Sprain
Tagovailoa missed the Week 12 game against the Jets after suffering a thumb injury in practice.

September 19, 2021 – Chest Rib Fracture
Tagovailoa suffered fractured ribs during Miami’s Week 2 game against the Bills. The Dolphins placed him on IR and he missed three games.

November 3, 2021 – Hand Finger Fracture
Tagovailoa missed the Week 9 game against the Texans due to a small fracture in the middle finger of his throwing hand.

September 29, 2022 – Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1
Tagovailoa was stretchered off in a Week 4 loss to the Bengals. 

December 25, 2022 – Head Cranial Concussion Grade 3
Tagovailoa missed the remainder of the regular season. He did not clear concussion protocol until around January 31.

December 31, 2023 – Shoulder
Tagovailoa left in the fourth quarter of Week 17 against the Ravens due to a shoulder injury. He returned to play against the Bills the following Sunday.

September 12, 2024 – Head Cranial Concussion Grade 2
Tagovailoa suffered a concussion toward the end of the third quarter in Week 2 against the Bills when hit during a run. The Dolphins placed him on IR.

Tagovailoa didn’t miss a game last season, and he signed a four-year, $212.1 million contract extension with the Dolphins in July.

Impact on Miami’s Super Bowl Aspirations

The Dolphins signed Tyler Huntley off the Ravens’ practice squad to replace Tagovailoa on the 53-man roster, but Skylar Thompson was the team’s starting quarterback Sunday against the Seahawks. Thompson struggled, completing 13 of 19 passes for just 107 yards and Tim Boyle got some reps too, completing 7 of 13 passes for 79 yards in Miami’s 24-3 loss in Seattle. 

In 2022, Tagovailoa admitted to briefly considering retirement after conversations with his family. During an interview with The Dan Le Batard Show in August, Tagovailoa clarified that it was primarily his mother who asked him to think about retiring.

Ultimately, Tagovailoa decided to keep playing. He spent the 2023 offseason bulking up and training in a jiujitsu breakfall program because he wanted to learn how to fall without hitting his head on the ground. Tagovailoa told CBS Sports he lost 14 pounds to be more mobile.

Tagovailoa then began wearing a VICIS helmet specifically designed to limit concussions.

“It was like a percentage better than the helmet that I had,” Tagovailoa said in August 2023. “Everything matters and so I’m going to play that percentage. So if you look at it last year, it wasn’t anyone really hitting my head. It was really just the ground.”

Tagovailoa’s training and helmet change seemed to help him, as he didn’t miss a game last season. According to reports, Tagovailoa looks to return to the field if and when doctors clear him, but I’m sure he must be at least weighing retirement, just like in 2022.

According to a market on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket, the day after the concussion, he had a 25% chance to retire from the NFL by September 30. As of Tuesday, his chances of retirement were just 4%.

If Tagovailoa does decide to retire, that decision won’t come by September 30 though. That said, he’ll likely return.

As mentioned before, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins agreed to a four-year, $212.4 contract extension in the offseason, and $167 million are guaranteed. If Tagovailoa is medically cleared to return but retires, he’d have to forfeit the money remaining on his contract unless he and the Dolphins can agree on an injury settlement. He’s been Miami’s starting quarterback since 2020.

Tagovailoa will miss at least the next four games. The Dolphins have a Week 6 bye, which means that he won’t be eligible for activation until Week 8 against the Cardinals at the earliest. The 26-year-old signal-caller will be out in Week 4 against Tennessee at home, Week 5 at New England, and Week 7 at Indianapolis. It will be interesting to see how sportsbooks set the lines for these games. Top sports betting apps can be found by clicking here if you are thinking about trying to take advantage of the uncertainty and possible discrepancies from the oddsmakers.

Dolphins’ Decline After Tua’s Injuries

This is the first time the Dolphins are forced to play without Tagovailoa since 2022, when Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater started a combined five games, including a loss against the Bills in the playoffs. 

The Dolphins are 33-20 in games Tagovailoa started and 7-10 when other quarterbacks started, including Thompson, Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

ESPN Research gives the Dolphins have a 19% chance to make the playoffs (13th out of 16 AFC teams), and a 3% chance to win the AFC East.

Thompson, in his third year in the league, is in line to take over under center for now. He started three games as a rookie in 2022, including the previously mentioned playoff loss on the road at Buffalo. As mentioned before, on Monday, the Dolphins signed Huntley to be the backup. McDaniel said the move “was not any direct reflection on Skylar,” and that instead, it was made to bolster the team’s depth.

The Dolphins also have five-year veteran quarterback Boyle on their roster. He is signed to the practice squad. As mentioned before, he already got some playing time on Sunday.

McDaniel said he has “utmost confidence” in Thompson, who beat veteran Mike White for the backup job in the offseason, because of how the Dolphins responded whenever he was on the field.

Sunday was Thompson’s second-ever road start. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks, who played for the Seahawks for four seasons, told Thompson to remember that his teammates are on the field with him and that he has to trust in this week’s preparation and play his game. Clearly he couldn’t follow that advice even if he wanted to, he seemed nervous and overwhelmed by the moment.

Concerns for Tua’s Future and the Dolphins

According to McDaniel, Tagovailoa will undergo thorough testing and evaluation. The league’s return-to-participation protocol is a complex five-step process that culminates in a team’s physician agreeing with an independent neurological consultant that the player can safely go back to the field.

The first step of this protocol is rest and recovery “until his signs and symptoms and neurologic examination” return to what is referred to as “baseline status.” Then, the next step is light aerobic exercise. This is followed by continued aerobic exercise and the introduction of strength training.

A player can take part in football activities in the fourth step of the protocol, but all must be noncontact. The final step is full clearance, when, as we just explained, the physician and neurological consultant agree that the player is ready.

The conversation surrounding Tagovailoa’s NFL future centers on whether the young signal-caller will be able to return and be his old self or if his career is in serious jeopardy. 

He has multiple concussions already, so concerns about his long-term health are becoming more prominent. Tagovailoa’s injury setback also forces the Dolphins to confront difficult decisions if he decides to retire or comes back and can’t perform at his usual level. 

Dolphins fans are concerned as well, with many wondering what happens if Tagovailoa doesn’t play again or underperforms. Thompson can help replace him for now, but let’s face it, the Dolphins are not contenders if he has to be their starter for the rest of the season, and the other quarterbacks on the roster are clearly not long-term solutions if Tagovailoa retires.